NASCAR adopted back in 2003 a system to try and not only keep their popularity but potentially grow it with a playoff system which was in line with other sports. Issue is nothing that could be done with that system would reward drivers for the balance of the season like the previous method used for decades. Unlike other sports where it is 1 vs 1 for a three, five, or seven game series drivers don't have the luxury of having a bad race, or two, or three and still win a championship (or series) in a ten race playoff. Trying to manufacture excitement in a championship battle in NASCAR (or NHRA where a similar strategy was attempted) is the worst thing you can do to this sport.
This brings me to the new changes being discussed for 2014. Based solely on the leaked information, NASCAR is proposing increasing the Chase field from 12 to 16 drivers. They are further advocating making winning more important by making it so that the first group of drivers into the Chase are the "full-time" drivers that won during the season. If there are more than 16 winners during the 26 race regular season it would then come down to points position of those 16 and likewise if there are less than 16 winners then the rest of field is determined by points position up to the full field of 16. The final change is to the Chase itself where it will go from a ten race shootout to a broken up scenario. After the third, sixth, and ninth race the bottom four drivers will be removed from the Chase field leaving a final four which will have points reset to the same with a final race to determine the Champion. I will now address the issues with the three items....
Change of field from 12 to 16
While on the surface this change doesn't sound like a big deal lets look at 2013. In 2013, depending on the definition NASCAR will use for "full-time", there were 28 drivers that raced every race. Now mind you there were five others I would deem full time if I was given the ability to define it. Two drivers, JJ Yeley and Dave Blaney, missed one race each. Further, two more drivers, Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart, missed races due to injury and one driver, Mark Martin, missed 7 races. I would be hard pressed to not include those five drivers in the full time category. The question is what does NASCAR classify it as? Is it merely drivers who have elected Sprint Cup as primary series and thus receive points in that series and not the lower two, The strict must run all races, or something in between. If it is the strict interpretation or something close to that you would probably include Yeley, Blaney, and Hamlin in the total bringing it to 31 drivers. Even at this the field is basically 50% of drivers.
Now I will say as a NHRA fan this is basically the same or maybe worse percentage getting in their Countdown to end the NHRA season. But let's be serious, the NHRA Countdown is also a joke as the top drivers in each car classification are usually confined to no more than the top ten. Which makes their playoff worse due to it making the first 60% of the season mostly meaningless. But they also have many good things going for them that NASCAR doesn't such as no automatic into the field qualifying (must race to get in) and points for top three in each qualifying session. I am by NO means advocating the NHRA rules.
If you take into account that you are already taking in 50-60% of full time drivers into the Chase why have it at all? Like I have referenced the Chase can't be compared to other sport playoffs, unless you choose the NFL. Lets compare the NFL now shall we...the Chase doesn't give top driver a home track benefit for being better during the season...or a home track benefit for the balance of the playoffs. I know this sounds silly but so does having a playoffs in Motorsports. There is no way to compare the playoffs in other sports to what they do in NASCAR. People constantly harp on consistency (as I do) and how does the current Chase or the potential changes make consistency rule the day?
Win to get in Chase and determination of field
I will break down the second item into two. First of all the need to win to get in the Chase. Again, on the surface this isn't so bad until you look into the dynamics of this change. Imagine if you will in 2013, Danica Patrick winning the Daytona 500 where she had a lead, qualified on pole, and was within the top ten at the final caution. Imagine her having the finishes that she received the rest of the regular season. Had this change been in place in 2013 she would have made the Chase...is that legitimate? How can anyone say that a driver that struggles all season but wins one race deserves to make a ten race shootout for the title?
This further exacerbates if you choose another scenario. Imagine Kevin Harvick winning the 2014 Daytona 500 and desiring to tank the rest of the regular season to avoid injury (aka start and park or something along those lines). He would still have raced every race and if no more than 16 drivers win a race during the season he would be in the Chase. Is that legit? As a fan of a top driver would you be ok with that driver doing this? Further, he could also use races in regular season held at Chase tracks as a testing ground to test out setups for the race in the Chase without much of a punishment.
Now on to the field determination...if drivers are smart they will attempt to at least win twice during the regular season so as to avoid a scenario that more than 16 drivers win a regular season race. This can be addressed by offering incentive, as they do now, to get bonus points for wins. Of course how much of an incentive will there be if the determination of seeding isn't that big of a deal so long as you do well at start of Chase.
This situation leads to a BIG issue where, depending on classification of full time, a driver that wins at a track they are most comfortable will be a part of the Chase field ahead of someone who may not have won but ran consistently at the front during the season.
Chase playoff change
The final, and most agregious in my mind but not by much, change is to the Chase itself. The plan of moving to a knockout playoff. This change is horrendous as it makes one race matter more than the rest during the Chase and drivers need only to get into the top four to make that race.
We all know drivers today don't like to "race" the entire time. This change will further enforce that concept until the last race. A driver that is 16th in the standings need only advance his/her position up to 12th after the third race, 8th after the 6th, and 4th after the 9th race. Drivers will make the determination to only do so much as to make their position enough to get into the final race not push it any further. It will not incentivize them to run away with getting points (read trying to win every one of the 9 races) but rather do just enough to "win and advance". This change could lead to a driver that was the "last" to get in the field doing just enough to advance to the final four only to do the best in last race and win title. Could you imagine a driver like Marcos Ambrose winning a road race, doing just enough to advance, and somehow being the highest placing driver in the last race winning the title? This is all possible now with these changes.
Another scenario I dread is a final race that is determined by team orders. The worst thing for NASCAR would be a situation where a driver of a multi car team is in final four but no other members of the team are in there with him/her. They could spend all race attempting to wreck or impede the other final four members. This could lead to catastrophe. I for one don't want to see a demolition derby scenario that this change could create which could end in death.
Furthermore, this change cheapens the entire rest of the season as it rewards drivers for doing just enough rather than pushing ALL season to be the best. Do we as fans deserve to see a champion that does just enough or one who pushes all season?
Those are the three changes being discussed and how bad they could be if drivers take advantage of them. These changes only do one thing...cheapen the sport as a whole. It seems to me the only way something like this doesn't go into effect is if drivers themselves get the guts like Formula 1 World Champion Sebasten Vettel did when he called out the FIA for the doubling of points in the final race in Dubai starting in 2014. He may have not gotten the FIA to change the rule back but if enough drivers join him in making those comments it will make them change. This has not and probably will NEVER happen in NASCAR since drivers today have been muzzled even if NASCAR management thinks they have opened them up with "boys, have at it" attitude.
This is the reason I have been a staunch advocate of the removal of the Chase as a whole. What was wrong with the old system pre-2003? The best Championship competitions (non-manufactured) were held during that period. The best driver for the SEASON was rewarded with the title. It would be a whole different situation if Motorsports was like other sports where a mulligan could be used by the best driver and he/she still had ability to win title...that is simply not the case in the Chase as two and sometimes one bad race removes you from contention regardless of how well you did rest of season. Consider this (and I know his fans hate this), Jimmie Johnson would only be three time if the Chase didn't exist.
Until the drivers themselves want to make change to the system nothing will change no matter how much the fans complain. Only way people can voice their anger as fans is via social media or their pocket book....question is... Will they?
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